By William D. Nordhaus
Humanity is risking the future health of the normal surroundings via a myriad of interventions, together with the atmospheric emission of hint gases comparable to carbon dioxide, using ozone-depleting chemical substances, the engineering of big land-use adjustments, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. it's critical that we discover ways to guard our universal geophysical and organic assets. even if scientists have studied greenhouse warming for many years, it's only lately that society has started to contemplate the commercial, political, and institutional elements of environmental intervention. to take action increases ambitious demanding situations of knowledge modeling, uncertainty, foreign coordination, and institutional layout. makes an attempt to house complicated medical and fiscal matters have more and more concerned using types to aid analysts and choice makers comprehend most probably destiny results in addition to the results of different guidelines. This ebook provides intimately a couple of versions of the economics of weather swap. The versions, referred to as RICE-99 (for the local Dynamic built-in version of weather and the financial system) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic built-in version of weather and the economic system) construct at the authors' previous paintings, really their RICE and cube versions of the early Nineteen Nineties. they could support coverage makers layout larger fiscal and environmental guidelines.
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Additional resources for Warming the world: economic models of global warming
Estimates of long-run output growth. There are major uncertainties about the long-run trajectories of economic growth in different regions. Some involve environmental issues, but the most important are likely to be political factors, the presence or absence of wars, and future technological change. 3. One set of information that informed these projections for economic growth was an informal survey of ten economists and economic historians who were asked their views about long-run growth trends.
Department of Energy. Energy consumption. The different energy sources (Xi) are nonelectric coal consumption, nonelectric natural gas consumption, electricity consumption, and consumption of petroleum products. S. Department of Energy. Fossil fuel shares for electricity were derived using EIA’s World Energy Projection System, 1997 version. Data for total coal and natural gas consumption were taken from International Energy Annual 1996, and nonelectric coal and natural gas consumption were calculated as the difference between electricity consumption and total consumption.
3 shows recent trends and near-term projections for the rate of decarbonization. 07 percent per year. The assumed rate of decarbonization tends toward zero in subsequent decades along with the assumed rate of economy-wide technological change. The projections developed here can be compared with the systematic survey by Nakicenovic, Grubler, and McDonald . They provide a range of scenarios, but their scenario B is probably closest to the philosophy expressed in this book. These two studies use methodologies that are completely independent in their underlying construction.