By Pierre L Siklos
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Extra info for War Finance, Reconstruction, Hyperinflation and Stabilization in Hungary, 1938–48
Not such that union workers would have necessarily been laid off last, political influences, as we shall see, no doubt had a role in the development of unemployment throughout the era covered by the present study. A further difficulty with Hungarian aggregate economic data noted previously is the role played by territorial changes between 1938 and 1944. 12 provides the only evidence I have seen about aggregate economic activity in Trianon versus enlarged Hungary. It is clearly not the case that, as the area administered by Hungary increased, National Income of Trianon Hungary represented an increasingly smaller proportion of Total National Income.
In other words, economic shocks, as reflected or measured by the time series under consideration, can persist over a long period of time. By contrast, detrending the data signifies that fluctuations in the time series are transitory. Recent research has suggested that, in the presence of large economic shocks (for example, the Great Depression, war, or the oil price shocks of recent history), time series which appear to be random walks, in fact, contain a time trend which has shifted over time.
The process of re-intermediation and central bank intervention after the August 1946 reforms makes it once again difficult to ascertain the influence of seasonal adjustment. The matter is complicated by the relatively poor crop of 1946. There is also a potential source of noise in the data arising out of the growing centralization of wage payments and the linking of the government budget with the note issue. Both policies may be reflected in the raw money supply figures in a manner to be explained in Chapter 9.