Trade, globalization and poverty by Elias Dinopoulos; et al

By Elias Dinopoulos; et al

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The basic mechanisms behind growth and poverty reduction do not fully overlap, and some policies meant to encourage growth will have little or negative effect on the poor in the short-run. These lags can affect the political feasibility of reforms. There is some evidence that regional disparities widened in China and India as these nations liberalized their foreign trade and introduced other reforms. To a certain extent this is natural: those regions (and individuals) which are better placed initially to take advantage of the opportunities opened up by reforms or, for that matter, by any other factor, such as, for example, the information technology revolution, are likely to grow faster (and richer).

Few practitioners of cross-country regression go beyond mechanical use. This does not mean that it is not possible to do so: the message of Atkinson and Brandolini is simply that one has to satisfy oneself that the inequality data are reasonably comparable in concept and coverage across countries and over time before embarking on an explanatory or casual analysis which make use of them. Estimates of private consumption expenditure from household surveys often differ from those from national accounts.

It is also clear from his analysis of the linkage between trade and growth, that the effect of globalization on growth could vary across countries and over time for similar reasons. Above all, since trade and other policies, as well as their outcomes in terms of growth and poverty are endogenous, without a well-specified analytical and Globalization and poverty 19 econometric framework, it is hard to draw valid inferences. Much of the cross-country regression literature that purports to show or deny the beneficial effects of globalization suffer from this disability.

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