The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson's by Peter Lynch

By Peter Lynch

Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that clinical climate prediction could in the future develop into a pragmatic fact. ahead of his rules may endure fruit numerous advances have been wanted: larger realizing of the dynamics of the ambience; sturdy computational algorithms to combine the equations; usual observations of the loose surroundings; and strong automated computing device apparatus. by means of 1950 advances in some of these fronts have been adequate to allow the 1st computing device forecast to be made. Over the resultant fifty years growth in numerical climate prediction has been dramatic. climate prediction and weather modelling have now reached a excessive point of class. This e-book tells the tale of Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of sensible numerical climate forecasting. It features a entire reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses intimately the reasons of his failure. this may attract everybody serious about numerical climate forecasting, from researchers and graduate scholars to execs.

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The forms may be classified as follows (Platzman, 1967): 6 I am grateful to Oliver Ashford for providing me with a set of blank forms; they remain to be completed. 3. Headings of the 23 computing forms designed and used by Richardson. Copies were available separately from his book as Forms whereon to write the numerical calculations described in Weather Prediction by Numerical Process by Lewis F Richardson. Cambridge University Press, 1922. Price two shillings. Computing Form P✌ P✌✍✌ P✌✍✌✎✌ P✌✁ P P ✌ P ✎✌ ✌ P ✎✌ ✌✍✌ P✌ ☛ P☛ P☛☎✌ P☛☎✌✎✌ P☛☎✌✎✌✍✌ P☛☎✌✁ P☛✄ P☛✄ ✌ P☛✄ ✎✌ ✌ P☛✄ ✎✌ ✌✎✌ P☛☎✌ ☛ M✌ M✌✎✌ M✌✎✌✎✌ M✌✁ Title Pressure, Temperature, Density, Water and Continuous Cloud Gas constant.

2. Page-count of Weather Prediction by Numerical Process. Dynamics Numerics Physics Miscellaneous Total Pages Momentum Equations Vertical Velocity The Stratosphere Total Dynamics Finite Differences Numerical Algorithm Total Numerics Dynamics+Numerics 11 10 24 Clouds and Water Energy and Entropy Radiation Turbulence Surface, Soil, Sea Total Physics 12 8 19 36 23 Summary Initial Data Analysis of Results Smoothing Forecast Factory Computing Forms Notation and Index Total Miscellaneous 3 7 5 3 1 23 14 45 12 25 37 82 98 56 236 dure that Richardson had devised for calculating the solution of the equations.

In Ch. 8 the forecasting ‘algorithm’ is presented in detail. It is carefully constructed so as to be, in Richardson’s words, lattice reproducing; that is, where a quantity is known at a particular time and place, the algorithm enables its value at a later time to be calculated at the same place. The description of the method is sufficiently detailed and precise to enable a computer program based on it to be written, so that Richardson’s results can be replicated (without the toil of two year’s manual calculation).

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