Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future by G. Wright, Professor George Cairns

By G. Wright, Professor George Cairns

Eventualities are a widespread method of reduction strategic research. An cutting edge advisor to new tools in state of affairs pondering, this booklet provides an in depth step by step account of the “intuitive logics” process for constructing and utilizing situations inside enterprises. The authors aspect a number of methodological techniques and exhibit tips to follow the main appropriate strategy to a specific scenario. The technique relies on a mixture of either high-level examine and top-level consultancy event. The booklet specializes in the demonstration and representation of functional steps in situation improvement processes.Scenario considering describes the logical bases of more than a few situation equipment and gives special ‘road maps’ on find out how to enforce them – including functional examples in their software. The authors overview the strengths and weaknesses of every approach and element the time and fabric assets that every approach calls for, supplying a entire evaluate of the main valuable and profitable tools at your organization’s disposal.

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THE SCENARIO PROCESS IN ACTION This section is designed to enable you to facilitate and give direction to a live scenario project. It is written in a style that is intended both to brief you in advance on the content, process and intended outcome of each state, and to allow you to read it to or with participants in a project in real time in order to keep the process moving. Stage 1: Setting the scenario agenda Scenario method is used to analyze and make sense of the broad “business environment” in which the issue is situated – the PESTEL context.

We also recognize that strategic thinking, analysis and decision-making are moderated by the “social construction of reality” (Berger and Luckmann, 1966), and that issues of power and influence are central in determining how situations will unfold. In this recognition, we align with Flyvbjerg (1998) and others who argue that power is a key determinant of political, organizational and economic thinking, and that rationalization, rather than rationality, is central to decision-making. The Individual and the Organization 17 .........................................................................................................................................

Throughout this chapter, we provide illustrative diagrams to show the format of the outputs from the various stages of the basic scenario process, and short examples to explain what is expected in content terms as the outcome. As we have outlined, actual implementation of the method may take place across a range of timescales, from one day to several iterations over months. In the Appendix, we provide a one-page timetable for “24-hour scenarios” with which you can work. This is a model that we have applied with success on numerous occasions.

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