Models at Work: A Practitioner’s Guide to Risk Management by Jawwad Ahmed Farid (auth.)

By Jawwad Ahmed Farid (auth.)

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Sample text

Today prices move abruptly and without notice, ignoring budgets, quotas, reasonable historical behavior, profitability or economic impact. You can model supply and demand as well as market sentiment, but your model price will fail to track the actual market price on days that count. Do price changes impact all of us the same way? If you trade on a daily basis and bring your investments down to zero when markets close, you care about price changes that occur during trading hours (intraday price movements).

Conclusions from the Emirates example A logistics business covers a wide range of services. From airlines that carry passengers, freight and cargo to bulk carriers that transport containers of finished goods, as well as raw ore and commodities. From small distributors that ensure delivery of your products to retail stores to large national fleets that are the backbones of just-in-time inventory systems. They are all reliant on one crucial, volatile commodity. Fuel. Fuel expenses today represent between 35 and 40 percent of total operating expenses for the logistics industry.

How the above four elements are balanced determines the effectiveness of risk management. With the right mix the recipe works; take one element out of alignment and it stops functioning. Is risk limited to just the financial services industry? Or are there broader applications that cross over beyond boundaries of markets and prices? If you are not a large bank or a hedge fund manager, do you still need to think about risk? The truth is that we are tuned to think about risk at an intuitive level.

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