Harvard Business Review - July - August 2009 by Harvard Business School Publishing

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Admittedly, this was the result of more than a flight to safety by global investors. Many, especially the Chinese, had been borrowing in dollars, expecting the currency to depreciate. The crisis sparked a scramble for dollar liquidity as lenders declined to roll over debt, and borrowers reacted by buying dollars to repay the debt before its value rose. The Chinese authorities’ decision in late 2008 to restore the renminbi-dollar peg also played a role in pushing up the dollar. Nevertheless, the financial crisis has reaffirmed the dollar’s centrality to the global system.

The organizational adaptability required to meet a relentless succession of challenges is beyond anyone’s current expertise. No one in a position of authority – none of us, in fact – has been here before. ) An organization that depends solely on its senior managers to deal with the challenges risks failure. That risk increases if we draw the wrong conclusions from our likely recovery from the current economic downturn. Many people survive heart attacks, but most cardiac surgery patients soon resume their old ways: Only about 20% give up smoking, change their diet, or get more exercise.

Managers should revisit their strategies on two fronts: First, help shape – and prepare to compete under – new regulatory regimes. Second, recognize that the public sector will grow in importance as a major customer for many industries because of rapid increases in spending. Beyond the current crisis, however, rising deficits and aging populations point to a future fiscal crunch for many countries. Governments will find themselves under intense pressure to deliver social services at lower cost. Creative partnership between the public and private sectors will be important in meeting this challenge.

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