Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks by Chiara de Franco, C. Meyer

By Chiara de Franco, C. Meyer

Assembling a excessive profile workforce of students and practitioners, this publication investigates the interaction of forecasting; warnings approximately, and responses to, recognized and unknown transnational hazards. It demanding situations traditional bills of 'failures' of caution and preventive coverage in either the educational literature and public debate.

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Extra resources for Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

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For example, as resilience planners know, nasty surprises can come from the unexpected interaction of elements of the critical national infrastructure when there is a disruptive event. Policy makers, including those responsible for authorising military, security and intelligence operations, must not confuse these categories. The inevitable post-mortems after a major disruptive event usually lead to demands that 'this must never be allowed to happen again'. The result is often a set of stable-door-closing measures that, if the problem is a 'normal accident', may well just add more complexity and thus paradoxically increase the risk of future accidents.

We believe American and international public opinion might have been different and so might have the range of options for a president - had they been informed of these details. (9/11 Commission, 2004: 341) It is possible that events might have turned out differently or maybe not. Without a doubt this was an intelligence failure. But what type of intelligence failure was it? Through the strategic or tactical lens, it becomes clearer what type of intelligence failure it is. According to the 9/11 Commission, the attacks were a strategic intelligence failure.

The World of Forms' spans the metaphysical world from 'mathematical forms' to the epistemological world of understanding and reason, resulting in knowledge. Consequently, epistemology arises from the combination of the Sensible World and the World of Forms, resulting in imagination, perception, understanding and reason (Sophia Project, 2008). How we view information is as important as what the information reveals independently of interpretation. Lock K. ' Oohnson, 2009: 35). This is because policy makers and military commanders believe that intelligence is a matter of reporting information and then acting upon it.

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