Forecasting, Theory and Practice by Satchwell C.J.

By Satchwell C.J.

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Cost comes into the picture in that any potential reduction in risk would be compared with the cost needed to achieve it. “Unacceptable” means that we would not normally tolerate that level of risk and would not participate in the activity in question nor permit others to operate a process that exhibited it except, perhaps, in exceptional circumstances. The principle of ALARP describes the way in which risk is treated legally and by the HSE in the UK, and also applied in some other countries. The concept is that all reasonable measures will be taken in respect of risks which lie in the tolerable (ALARP) zone to reduce them further until the cost of further risk reduction is grossly disproportionate to the benefit.

Assume that a fault tree indicates that each of the processes will suffer an incident once in 50 years. It is proposed to implement an add-on safety system with instrumentation and shut-down measures. Which type of SIL is indicated and why? What is the target and what SIL is inferred? 2 If additional fire fighting equipment were made available, to reduce the likelihood of a fatality from 1 in 10 to 1 in 30, what effect, if any, will be there on the target SIL? Exercises 1 and 2 involved the low-demand table in which the risk criteria were expressed as a PFD.

The severity of the consequences and the likelihood of occurrence are then assigned a probability (often by reference to a standard table usually specified in the user’s procedure). , personnel, environment, asset loss). As a result any requirement for additional risk reduction required is identified. The output of the LOPA is the target PFD for the safety instrumented function. For the LOPA to be valid there must be independence between initiating events and layers of protection and between the layers of protection.

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