By David Greenaway (eds.)
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Extra info for Economic Development and International Trade
3 Thus exports are the key to growth, but they can expand no faster than is permitted by the first 'gear' in the 'trade engine', that linking exports of developing countries to the growth of developed countries or other exogenous determinants of demand. Link between export performance and growth of developed countries The proposition that the export performance of developing countries is determined by forces outside the developing countries themselves is just as crucial to the theory of trade as an engine of growth as the proposition that growth in developing countries depends on trade.
The intellectual foundations of the import-substitution strategy of development laid in the 1950s by Raul Prebisch, Gunnar Myrdal and, most importantly, 28 Trade as an Engine of Growth Ragnar Nurkse were that, while trade served as the engine of growth in the nineteenth century, it could no longer be relied upon to play that role in the twentieth, because of a slowdown in the growth of demand in developed countries for the exports of developing countries. 2 Subsequently Lewis (1980) declared trade to have been the 'engine of growth' after the Second World War in developing countries, only to argue that the 'engine' is running out of fuel as the industrial countries enter a prolonged period of economic slowdown.
963). The premise that export performance and growth are externally determined is the basis for the policy recommended by those who advance the theory of the trade engine. This policy invariably involves a rejection of free trade. The rejection of free trade is advocated as the only way of lifting the siege on the economies of developing countries that is imposed by the developed world. No less important, the premise that exports are externally driven provides a convenient justification for dismissing the past success of some countries in world markets and for denying that such success might continue under the less favourable circumstances that many now foresee for the developed countries.