Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems. Explorations in by Norman J. Glickman

By Norman J. Glickman

Econometric research of neighborhood platforms: Explorations in version construction and coverage research offers details pertinent to using neighborhood econometric types for forecasting and coverage research. This e-book offers macroeconomic forecasting for metropolitan regions.

Organized into 5 chapters, this booklet starts off with an outline of the matter of forecasting neighborhood monetary task. this article then analyzes the significant varieties, fiscal base, input–output, and econometric of the nearby financial versions. different chapters reflect on a large-scale econometric version for the Philadelphia area in response to time sequence info to make forecasts for output, employment, costs, wages, source of revenue, fiscal job, and different monetary aggregates. This e-book discusses to boot the categories of forecasting versions utilized in local research. the ultimate bankruptcy bargains with econometric innovations to endure at the challenge of neighborhood monetary forecasting.

This e-book is a helpful source for economists, neighborhood coverage makers, and govt officers.

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Extra resources for Econometric Analysis of Regional Systems. Explorations in Model Building and Policy Analysis

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The lack of observations makes it difficult to estimate the parameters of regional models. As noted below, the resulting formulations are relatively simple, often consisting of a series of bivariate relationships. 44 for further discussion of this matter. In contrast to economic base and input-output models, econometric models are not necessarily based upon a specific theory of urban structure. 432 ) , an economic base formulation is adopted by an econometrician, and in fact, an explicit theory of urban growth is tested.

The results of Moody and Puffer [1969], cited above, and others indicate that the basic/service ratio is not constant. The ratio also has the defect of ignoring the feedback effects of economic development. Growth tends to produce further growth as Thompson [1965] argues, and concommitantly, the demand for more industry to serve local needs. This group of firms may, in fact, export part of its output—yet its primary function is internally oriented; see Yeates and Garner [1971, p. 123]. Lags also present a problem.

11 Boldface Arabic capital letters denote matrices. 12 For the system (19) to be stable, the so-called Hawkins-Simon condition must hold. This means that there can be no negative elements among the am. See Hawkins and Simon [1949, pp. 245-248]. 13 One application of input-output forecasting to policy issues is in the context of indicative planning in France; see Miernyk [1965, pp. 40-41]. See also Almon [1966] for a study of the impact of long-term economic growth on industrial structure. 3 Regional and Interregional Input-Output 31 economy) through the final demand sector (now missing the consumption vector) and make the same calculation as in Equation 14 ( 1 9 ) , one gets the total impact, both direct and indirect, of the activity being studied.

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